Varea v Agoncillo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Varea 1–0 Agoncillo VAREA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Varea win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.341

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Varea win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Varea 52% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
1′KICK-OFF Varea v Agoncillo
7′Little has changed for our model: Varea 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–22
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Varea win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Varea win: 52% at kick-off, 44% now
45′HALF-TIME Varea 0–0 Agoncillo
46′SECOND HALF Varea 0–0 Agoncillo
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Varea win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Varea win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Varea win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Varea win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Varea win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Varea win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Varea 1–0 Agoncillo
FTFULL TIME Varea 1–0 Agoncillo
FTVarea 1–0 Agoncillo · Varea win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Varea win52%

Draw26%

Agoncillo win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Varea

Agoncillo

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Agoncillo	5	+4	8
10	Varea	5	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · varea winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Varea a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varea win	52%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Agoncillo win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Varea or draw	78%	–	–
Varea clean sheet	39%	–	–
Agoncillo clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.5 6.7 3.5 1 11.7 12.2 5.5 2 9.9 9.3 4.4 3 5.4 5.1 2.4 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Varea down, Agoncillo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,452 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varea at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Agoncillo away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Varea, 0.95 for Agoncillo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VAR 3–1 AGO · AGO 0–1 VAR · AGO 2–2 VAR · VAR 3–2 AGO

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

VAREA

LDDDWD0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

AGONCILLO

LDDLWW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–5 · 5–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	5	+6	13
2	Berceo	5	+9	12
3	La Calzada	5	+5	12
4	Alfaro	5	+2	10
5	Pradejón	6	+2	10
6	Calahorra	5	+7	9
7	Agoncillo	5	+4	8
8	Anguiano	6	+2	8
9	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
10	Varea	5	+1	7
11	San Marcial	5	0	6
12	Yagüe	6	−6	6
13	Cenicero	5	−1	5
14	Comillas	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	5	−5	5
16	River Ebro	6	−9	4
17	Casalarreina	5	−8	3
18	Vianés	5	−5	1