San Marcial v Pradejón prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San MarcialDrawPradejón

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · San Marcial 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Marcial are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Marcial 46%, draw 27%, Pradejón 26%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on San Marcial v PradejónBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

San Marcial win46%

Draw27%

Pradejón win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Marcial

Pradejón

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Pradejón	7	+3	13
8	San Marcial	7	+5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san marcial winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make San Marcial a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Marcial v Pradejón~~1.45 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Marcial win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Pradejón win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
San Marcial or draw	74%	–	–
San Marcial clean sheet	37%	–	–
Pradejón clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.3 8.2 4.4 1 11.8 12.7 6.2 2.2 2 8.8 8.8 4.5 3 4.3 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Marcial down, Pradejón across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,467 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Marcial at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pradejón away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for San Marcial, 1.02 for Pradejón. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PRA 0–0 SAN · SAN 0–2 PRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept

SAN MARCIAL

DDLDWW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–0

PRADEJÓN

WDWLWW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	7	+6	16
2	Alfaro	7	+4	16
3	Berceo	7	+11	15
4	La Calzada	7	+2	15
5	Pradejón	7	+3	13
6	Varea	7	+3	13
7	Calahorra	7	+8	12
8	San Marcial	7	+5	12
9	Anguiano	7	+5	11
10	Oyonesa	7	+1	11
11	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	7	−4	5
15	Calasancio	7	−10	5
16	Vianés	7	−2	4
17	River Ebro	7	−10	4
18	Casalarreina	7	−13	3