Pradejón v Cenicero prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Pradejón 1–0 Cenicero PRADEJÓN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pradejón win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.325

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pradejón win at 54%.
1′Pradejón score on 1′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–13–8
1′KICK-OFF Pradejón v Cenicero
25′We published Pradejón at 54%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
35′We published Pradejón at 54%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
45′HALF-TIME Pradejón 1–0 Cenicero
46′SECOND HALF Pradejón 1–0 Cenicero
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Pradejón win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
65′We published Pradejón at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
77′We published Pradejón at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Pradejón win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We published Pradejón at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Pradejón 1–0 Cenicero
FTPradejón 1–0 Cenicero · Pradejón win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pradejón are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pradejón 54%, draw 25%, Cenicero 21%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Pradejón v CeniceroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pradejón win54%

Draw25%

Cenicero win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pradejón

Cenicero

10Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Pradejón	6	+2	10
14	Cenicero	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pradejón winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Pradejón a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pradejón v Cenicero~~1.68 – 0.94

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~7 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pradejón win	54%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Cenicero win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Pradejón or draw	79%	–	–
Pradejón clean sheet	41%	–	–
Cenicero clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 8.5 6.5 3.4 1 11.8 11.5 5.3 2 10.1 8.8 4.2 3 5.8 4.9 2.3 4 2.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pradejón down, Cenicero across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,460 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Pradejón at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cenicero away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Pradejón, 0.94 for Cenicero. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 5 Sept

PRADEJÓN

LWDWLW1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

CENICERO

DDWLLL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Berceo	6	+13	15
2	Alfaro	6	+3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	+2	13
4	Calahorra	6	+11	12
5	San Marcial	7	+5	12
6	La Calzada	6	+1	12
7	Pradejón	6	+2	10
8	Varea	6	+2	10
9	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
10	Anguiano	6	+2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	6	−9	5
16	Vianés	6	−1	4
17	River Ebro	6	−9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	−9	3