Oyonesa v Berceo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Oyonesa 2–0 Berceo OYONESA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oyonesa win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.364

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oyonesa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oyonesa 51%, draw 25%, Berceo 24%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Oyonesa v BerceoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Oyonesa win51%

Draw25%

Berceo win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oyonesa

Berceo

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oyonesa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Oyonesa a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oyonesa v Berceo~~1.67 – 1.07

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 15~~11 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oyonesa win	51%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Berceo win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Oyonesa or draw	76%	–	–
Oyonesa clean sheet	35%	–	–
Berceo clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.4 6.5 3.7 1 10.3 11.9 6.0 2.2 2 9.0 9.3 5.0 3 5.0 5.2 2.8 4 2.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oyonesa down, Berceo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,460 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oyonesa at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Berceo away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Oyonesa, 1.07 for Berceo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OYO 3–0 BER · BER 2–2 OYO · OYO 1–2 BER · BER 0–1 OYO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 5 Sept

OYONESA

LLWDDW1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

BERCEO

WWLWWW2–1 · 7–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Berceo	6	+13	15
2	Alfaro	6	+3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	+2	13
4	Calahorra	6	+11	12
5	San Marcial	7	+5	12
6	La Calzada	6	+1	12
7	Pradejón	6	+2	10
8	Varea	6	+2	10
9	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
10	Anguiano	6	+2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	6	−9	5
16	Vianés	6	−1	4
17	River Ebro	6	−9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	−9	3