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Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 › La Calzada v River Ebro

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La Calzada v River Ebro

La Calzada
2–1Full time
River Ebro

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02
La Calzada 2–1 River Ebro LA CALZADA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said La Calzada win61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.230

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said La Calzada win at 61%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: La Calzada 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–22–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF La Calzada v River Ebro
  4. 32′La Calzada score on 32′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  5. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' La Calzada 1–0 River Ebro
  6. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' La Calzada win: 61% at kick-off, 83% now
  7. 33′We said La Calzada at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  8. 33′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  9. 45′HALF-TIME La Calzada 2–0 River Ebro
  10. 46′SECOND HALF La Calzada 2–0 River Ebro
  11. 48′La Calzada find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  12. 48′We said La Calzada at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  13. 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' La Calzada 2–0 River Ebro
  14. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' La Calzada win: 61% at kick-off, 97% now
  15. 79′We said La Calzada at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  16. 84′A goal for River Ebro on 84′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  17. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' La Calzada 2–1 River Ebro
  18. 85′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  19. FTFULL TIME La Calzada 2–1 River Ebro
  20. FTLa Calzada 2–1 River Ebro · La Calzada win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

La Calzada are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: La Calzada 61%, draw 22%, River Ebro 17%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on La Calzada v River EbroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

La Calzada win61%
Draw22%
River Ebro win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

La Calzada

River Ebro

7Days since last match10

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

Last match: 8 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6La Calzada6+112
17River Ebro6−94

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · la calzada winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
61% The market–
Us61%

We make La Calzada a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · La Calzada v River Ebro1.99 – 0.93
Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 6 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 12 v 46 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
La Calzada win61%––
Draw22%––
River Ebro win17%––
Over 2.5 goals55%––
Both teams to score52%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals33%––
La Calzada or draw83%––
La Calzada clean sheet40%––
River Ebro clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%
0123450 6.3 4.7 2.5 1 10.4 10.4 4.6 2 10.5 9.5 4.4 3 6.9 6.2 2.9 4 3.6 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+La Calzada down, River Ebro across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.53 of 8
Both scored3 of 8
Last meetingsLAC 1–0 RIV · RIV 0–2 LAC · LAC 2–1 RIV · RIV 1–3 LAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 6 Sept

LA CALZADA

WWWLWL2–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–5

RIVER EBRO

LLLWDL1–2 · 0–7 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Berceo6+1315
2Alfaro6+313
3Haro Deportivo6+213
4Calahorra6+1112
5San Marcial7+512
6La Calzada6+112
7Pradejón6+210
8Varea6+210
9Agoncillo7+39
10Anguiano6+28
11Oyonesa6−18
12Comillas7−36
13Yagüe7−96
14Cenicero6−35
15Calasancio6−95
16Vianés6−14
17River Ebro6−94
18Casalarreina6−93

The competition's standings before kick-off.