Haro Deportivo v Casalarreina prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Haro Deportivo 5–1 Casalarreina HARO DEPORTIVO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Haro Deportivo win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.192

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Haro Deportivo win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Haro Deportivo was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–16
1′KICK-OFF Haro Deportivo v Casalarreina
7′Haro Deportivo find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–11–6
7′We published Haro Deportivo at 64%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–6
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Haro Deportivo 1–0 Casalarreina
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Haro Deportivo win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
10′A goal for Haro Deportivo on 10′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–2
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Haro Deportivo 2–0 Casalarreina
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Haro Deportivo win: 64% at kick-off, 94% now
11′We published Haro Deportivo at 64%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–2
16′PENALTY MISSED · 16' Haro Deportivo
20′We published Haro Deportivo at 64%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
25′Casalarreina score on 25′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 83–12–5
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Haro Deportivo 2–1 Casalarreina
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Haro Deportivo win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
32′Haro Deportivo find the net on 32′. 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
32′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 95–4–1
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Haro Deportivo 3–1 Casalarreina
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Haro Deportivo win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
45′HALF-TIME Haro Deportivo 3–1 Casalarreina
46′SECOND HALF Haro Deportivo 3–1 Casalarreina
64′A goal for Haro Deportivo on 63′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
64′We published Haro Deportivo at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
64′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Haro Deportivo 4–1 Casalarreina
81′Haro Deportivo score on 81′ to make it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Haro Deportivo 5–1 Casalarreina
82′6 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Haro Deportivo 5–1 Casalarreina
FTHaro Deportivo 5–1 Casalarreina · Haro Deportivo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Haro Deportivo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Haro Deportivo 64%, draw 19%, Casalarreina 16%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Haro Deportivo v CasalarreinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Haro Deportivo win64%

Draw19%

Casalarreina win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Haro Deportivo

Casalarreina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Haro Deportivo	6	+2	13
18	Casalarreina	6	−9	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · haro deportivo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Haro Deportivo a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Haro Deportivo v Casalarreina~~2.35 – 1.08

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 3~~3 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Haro Deportivo win	64%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Casalarreina win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Haro Deportivo or draw	84%	–	–
Haro Deportivo clean sheet	35%	–	–
Casalarreina clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 4.1 3.4 2.1 1 7.4 8.8 4.5 2 8.8 9.3 5.0 3 6.8 7.1 3.8 4 4.1 4.2 2.2 5 2.0 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Haro Deportivo down, Casalarreina across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,460 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.62 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Haro Deportivo at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Casalarreina away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.35 goals for Haro Deportivo, 1.08 for Casalarreina. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HAR 2–0 CAS · CAS 0–0 HAR · HAR 0–0 CAS · CAS 3–2 HAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 5 Sept

HARO DEPORTIVO

DWWWWL1–1 · 4–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–4

CASALARREINA

WLLLLL2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Berceo	6	+13	15
2	Alfaro	6	+3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	+2	13
4	Calahorra	6	+11	12
5	San Marcial	7	+5	12
6	La Calzada	6	+1	12
7	Pradejón	6	+2	10
8	Varea	6	+2	10
9	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
10	Anguiano	6	+2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	6	−9	5
16	Vianés	6	−1	4
17	River Ebro	6	−9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	−9	3