Comillas v Calasancio prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ComillasDrawCalasancio

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Comillas 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Comillas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Comillas 45%, draw 26%, Calasancio 29%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Comillas v CalasancioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Comillas win45%

Draw26%

Calasancio win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Comillas

Calasancio

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
15	Calasancio	7	−10	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · comillas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Comillas a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Comillas v Calasancio~~1.59 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 5~~12 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Comillas win	45%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Calasancio win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Comillas or draw	71%	–	–
Comillas clean sheet	30%	–	–
Calasancio clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.0 7.0 4.5 1 9.3 11.8 6.9 2.9 2 7.6 8.9 5.3 2.2 3 4.1 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Comillas down, Calasancio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,467 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Comillas at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Calasancio away: 1.00 scored, 4.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Comillas, 1.22 for Calasancio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept

COMILLAS

DDLLLD0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

CALASANCIO

LDLWLL3–4 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	7	+6	16
2	Alfaro	7	+4	16
3	Berceo	7	+11	15
4	La Calzada	7	+2	15
5	Pradejón	7	+3	13
6	Varea	7	+3	13
7	Calahorra	7	+8	12
8	San Marcial	7	+5	12
9	Anguiano	7	+5	11
10	Oyonesa	7	+1	11
11	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	7	−4	5
15	Calasancio	7	−10	5
16	Vianés	7	−2	4
17	River Ebro	7	−10	4
18	Casalarreina	7	−13	3