Cenicero v San Marcial prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Cenicero 1–3 San Marcial SAN MARCIAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said San Marcial win~~38%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Marcial win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: San Marcial was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Cenicero v San Marcial
2′Much as we predicted: San Marcial was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–26–38
23′PENALTY MISSED · 23' San Marcial
24′23′ and it is 0–0: San Marcial have scored. 0–0 · 33–31–36
45′HALF-TIME Cenicero 0–0 San Marcial
45′PENALTY MISSED · 23' San Marcial
46′SECOND HALF Cenicero 0–0 San Marcial
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Cenicero 0–1 San Marcial
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Cenicero 0–2 San Marcial
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Cenicero 1–2 San Marcial
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Cenicero 1–3 San Marcial
FTFULL TIME Cenicero 1–3 San Marcial
FTCenicero 1–3 San Marcial · San Marcial win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cenicero win35%

Draw27%

San Marcial win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cenicero

San Marcial

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	San Marcial	5	0	6
13	Cenicero	5	−1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san marcial winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

38% The market30%

Us38%

~~Market~~30%

We make San Marcial a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · san marcial win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cenicero win	35%	42%	−7
Draw	27%	27%	−1
San Marcial win	38%	30%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	29%	−2
Cenicero or draw	62%	70%	−8
Cenicero clean sheet	27%	–	–
San Marcial clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.4 9.3 6.8 3.3 1 8.5 12.2 7.6 3.5 2 6.0 7.5 4.8 2.1 3 2.8 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cenicero down, San Marcial across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,452 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Cenicero at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). San Marcial away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Cenicero, 1.35 for San Marcial. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

CENICERO

LDDWLL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–2

SAN MARCIAL

LWDDLD0–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	5	+6	13
2	Berceo	5	+9	12
3	La Calzada	5	+5	12
4	Alfaro	5	+2	10
5	Pradejón	6	+2	10
6	Calahorra	5	+7	9
7	Agoncillo	5	+4	8
8	Anguiano	6	+2	8
9	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
10	Varea	5	+1	7
11	San Marcial	5	0	6
12	Yagüe	6	−6	6
13	Cenicero	5	−1	5
14	Comillas	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	5	−5	5
16	River Ebro	6	−9	4
17	Casalarreina	5	−8	3
18	Vianés	5	−5	1