Cenicero v La Calzada prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CeniceroDrawLa Calzada

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · La Calzada 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

La Calzada are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cenicero 27%, draw 25%, La Calzada 48%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Cenicero v La CalzadaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cenicero win27%

Draw25%

La Calzada win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cenicero

La Calzada

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	La Calzada	7	+2	15
14	Cenicero	7	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · la calzada winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make La Calzada a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cenicero v La Calzada~~1.09 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 15~~14 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cenicero win	27%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
La Calzada win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Cenicero or draw	52%	–	–
Cenicero clean sheet	22%	–	–
La Calzada clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.9 10.5 8.6 4.8 2.1 1 7.2 11.7 8.5 4.5 2 4.4 6.3 4.6 2.4 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cenicero down, La Calzada across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,467 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cenicero at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). La Calzada away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Cenicero, 1.58 for La Calzada. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LAC 4–0 CEN · CEN 0–1 LAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept

CENICERO

DWLLLL0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

LA CALZADA

WWLWLW3–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	7	+6	16
2	Alfaro	7	+4	16
3	Berceo	7	+11	15
4	La Calzada	7	+2	15
5	Pradejón	7	+3	13
6	Varea	7	+3	13
7	Calahorra	7	+8	12
8	San Marcial	7	+5	12
9	Anguiano	7	+5	11
10	Oyonesa	7	+1	11
11	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	7	−4	5
15	Calasancio	7	−10	5
16	Vianés	7	−2	4
17	River Ebro	7	−10	4
18	Casalarreina	7	−13	3