Casalarreina v Anguiano prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CasalarreinaDrawAnguiano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Anguiano 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Anguiano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Casalarreina 20%, draw 22%, Anguiano 59%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Casalarreina v AnguianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Casalarreina win20%

Draw22%

Anguiano win59%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Casalarreina

Anguiano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Anguiano	7	+5	11
18	Casalarreina	7	−13	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · anguiano winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Anguiano a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Casalarreina v Anguiano~~1.09 – 2.08

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 11~~18 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Casalarreina win	20%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Anguiano win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Casalarreina or draw	41%	–	–
Casalarreina clean sheet	14%	–	–
Anguiano clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 5.0 8.5 9.0 6.2 3.3 1 4.5 9.9 9.4 6.4 3.4 2 2.7 5.2 5.1 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Casalarreina down, Anguiano across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,467 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Casalarreina at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Anguiano away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Casalarreina, 2.08 for Anguiano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ANG 2–1 CAS · CAS 2–2 ANG · ANG 4–0 CAS · CAS 3–2 ANG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept

CASALARREINA

LLLLLL0–3 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–5

ANGUIANO

DDLLWW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	7	+6	16
2	Alfaro	7	+4	16
3	Berceo	7	+11	15
4	La Calzada	7	+2	15
5	Pradejón	7	+3	13
6	Varea	7	+3	13
7	Calahorra	7	+8	12
8	San Marcial	7	+5	12
9	Anguiano	7	+5	11
10	Oyonesa	7	+1	11
11	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	7	−4	5
15	Calasancio	7	−10	5
16	Vianés	7	−2	4
17	River Ebro	7	−10	4
18	Casalarreina	7	−13	3