Calasancio v Varea prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Calasancio 0–1 Varea VAREA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Varea win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.317

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Varea win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Varea was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 21–25–54
1′KICK-OFF Calasancio v Varea
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Varea win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
44′We said Varea at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 20–38–42
45′HALF-TIME Calasancio 0–0 Varea
46′SECOND HALF Calasancio 0–0 Varea
51′We said Varea at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 19–42–39
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Varea win 38%)
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 18–45–37
60′We said Varea at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 17–49–34
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Varea win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
67′We said Varea at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 15–56–29
73′We said Varea at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 12–64–24
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Varea win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
77′We said Varea at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 10–70–19
79′A goal for Varea on 79′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–9–91
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Calasancio 0–1 Varea
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Varea win: 54% at kick-off, 91% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Varea win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
80′We published Varea at 54%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–1 · 0–8–92
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Varea win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
85′We published Varea at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Calasancio 0–1 Varea
FTCalasancio 0–1 Varea · Varea win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Varea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Calasancio 21%, draw 25%, Varea 54%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Calasancio v VareaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Calasancio win21%

Draw25%

Varea win54%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Calasancio

Varea

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Varea	6	+2	10
15	Calasancio	6	−9	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · varea winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Varea a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Calasancio v Varea~~0.96 – 1.72

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 10~~15 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Calasancio win	21%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Varea win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Calasancio or draw	46%	–	–
Calasancio clean sheet	19%	–	–
Varea clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.9 11.3 10.0 5.8 2.6 1 6.2 11.6 9.2 5.3 2.3 2 3.3 5.3 4.4 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Calasancio down, Varea across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,460 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Calasancio at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Varea away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Calasancio, 1.72 for Varea. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 6 Sept

CALASANCIO

DLDLWL2–2 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 0–4

VAREA

DDDWDW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Berceo	6	+13	15
2	Alfaro	6	+3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	+2	13
4	Calahorra	6	+11	12
5	San Marcial	7	+5	12
6	La Calzada	6	+1	12
7	Pradejón	6	+2	10
8	Varea	6	+2	10
9	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
10	Anguiano	6	+2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	6	−9	5
16	Vianés	6	−1	4
17	River Ebro	6	−9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	−9	3