Calahorra v Yagüe prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CalahorraDrawYagüe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Calahorra 82%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Calahorra are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Calahorra 82%, draw 12%, Yagüe 7%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Calahorra v YagüeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Calahorra win82%

Draw12%

Yagüe win7%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Calahorra

Yagüe

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Calahorra	7	+8	12
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · calahorra winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

82% The market–

Us82%

We make Calahorra an 82% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–0.8, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Calahorra v Yagüe~~3.19 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~7 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Calahorra win	82%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Yagüe win	7%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Calahorra or draw	93%	–	–
Calahorra clean sheet	44%	–	–
Yagüe clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.4%

0123450 2.3 1 5.8 5.2 2.1 2 9.1 7.5 3.2 3 9.4 7.7 3.2 4 7.4 6.0 2.5 5 4.8 3.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Calahorra down, Yagüe across0–5 goals a side shown (88.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,467 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 7.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Calahorra at home: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Yagüe away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.19 goals for Calahorra, 0.83 for Yagüe. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~YAG 4–4 CAL · CAL 6–0 YAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept

CALAHORRA

WWWLWL2–0 · 5–3 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–3

YAGÜE

LWLWLL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	7	+6	16
2	Alfaro	7	+4	16
3	Berceo	7	+11	15
4	La Calzada	7	+2	15
5	Pradejón	7	+3	13
6	Varea	7	+3	13
7	Calahorra	7	+8	12
8	San Marcial	7	+5	12
9	Anguiano	7	+5	11
10	Oyonesa	7	+1	11
11	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	7	−4	5
15	Calasancio	7	−10	5
16	Vianés	7	−2	4
17	River Ebro	7	−10	4
18	Casalarreina	7	−13	3