Calahorra v Haro Deportivo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Calahorra 4–0 Haro Deportivo CALAHORRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Calahorra win~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.143

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Calahorra win at 69%.
1′Much as we predicted: Calahorra was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–13
1′KICK-OFF Calahorra v Haro Deportivo
8′Much as we predicted: Calahorra was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–18–13
45′HALF-TIME Calahorra 0–0 Haro Deportivo
46′SECOND HALF Calahorra 0–0 Haro Deportivo
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Calahorra 1–0 Haro Deportivo
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Calahorra 2–0 Haro Deportivo
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Calahorra 3–0 Haro Deportivo
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Calahorra 4–0 Haro Deportivo
FTFULL TIME Calahorra 4–0 Haro Deportivo
FTCalahorra 4–0 Haro Deportivo · Calahorra win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Calahorra win69%

Draw18%

Haro Deportivo win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Calahorra

Haro Deportivo

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	5	+6	13
6	Calahorra	5	+7	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · calahorra winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

69% The market–

Us69%

We make Calahorra a 69% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Calahorra win	69%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Haro Deportivo win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Calahorra or draw	87%	–	–
Calahorra clean sheet	38%	–	–
Haro Deportivo clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.6%

0123450 3.8 2.8 1 7.5 8.1 3.8 2 9.6 9.2 4.5 3 7.8 7.5 3.7 4 4.9 4.7 2.3 5 2.5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Calahorra down, Haro Deportivo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,452 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Calahorra at home: 2.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Haro Deportivo away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Calahorra, 0.98 for Haro Deportivo. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HAR 1–0 CAL · CAL 2–0 HAR

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

CALAHORRA

LLWWWL0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 5–3 · 5–0 · 1–2

HARO DEPORTIVO

LDWWWW0–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	5	+6	13
2	Berceo	5	+9	12
3	La Calzada	5	+5	12
4	Alfaro	5	+2	10
5	Pradejón	6	+2	10
6	Calahorra	5	+7	9
7	Agoncillo	5	+4	8
8	Anguiano	6	+2	8
9	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
10	Varea	5	+1	7
11	San Marcial	5	0	6
12	Yagüe	6	−6	6
13	Cenicero	5	−1	5
14	Comillas	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	5	−5	5
16	River Ebro	6	−9	4
17	Casalarreina	5	−8	3
18	Vianés	5	−5	1