Berceo v La Calzada prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Berceo 5–1 La Calzada BERCEO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Berceo win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Berceo win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Berceo 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Berceo v La Calzada
4′Little has changed for our model: Berceo 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Berceo 1–0 La Calzada
21′19′ and it is 1–0: Berceo have scored. 1–0 · 70–19–10
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Berceo win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Berceo win: 42% at kick-off, 41% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Berceo win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
36′We said Berceo at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Berceo win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Berceo win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
37′We said Berceo at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Berceo win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Berceo win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Berceo 2–0 La Calzada
45′HALF-TIME Berceo 2–0 La Calzada
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Berceo win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 19' Berceo 2–0 La Calzada
45′⚽ GOAL · 39' Berceo 2–0 La Calzada
46′SECOND HALF Berceo 2–0 La Calzada
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Berceo 2–1 La Calzada
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Berceo 3–1 La Calzada
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Berceo 4–1 La Calzada
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Berceo 5–1 La Calzada
90′⚽ GOAL · 19' Berceo 5–1 La Calzada
90′⚽ GOAL · 39' Berceo 5–1 La Calzada
90′⚽ GOAL · 57' Berceo 5–1 La Calzada
90′⚽ GOAL · 71' Berceo 5–1 La Calzada
90′⚽ GOAL · 83' Berceo 5–1 La Calzada
FTFULL TIME Berceo 5–1 La Calzada
FTBerceo 5–1 La Calzada · Berceo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Berceo win42%

Draw27%

La Calzada win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Berceo

La Calzada

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Berceo	5	+9	12
3	La Calzada	5	+5	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · berceo winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Berceo a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Berceo win	42%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
La Calzada win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Berceo or draw	69%	–	–
Berceo clean sheet	30%	–	–
La Calzada clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.9 7.7 5.1 2.1 1 9.5 12.7 7.2 2.9 2 7.4 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.7 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Berceo down, La Calzada across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,452 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Berceo at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). La Calzada away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Berceo, 1.21 for La Calzada. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BER 1–1 LAC · LAC 3–2 BER · BER 2–3 LAC · LAC 0–0 BER

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

BERCEO

LWWLWW1–2 · 2–1 · 7–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

LA CALZADA

WWWWLW3–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	5	+6	13
2	Berceo	5	+9	12
3	La Calzada	5	+5	12
4	Alfaro	5	+2	10
5	Pradejón	6	+2	10
6	Calahorra	5	+7	9
7	Agoncillo	5	+4	8
8	Anguiano	6	+2	8
9	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
10	Varea	5	+1	7
11	San Marcial	5	0	6
12	Yagüe	6	−6	6
13	Cenicero	5	−1	5
14	Comillas	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	5	−5	5
16	River Ebro	6	−9	4
17	Casalarreina	5	−8	3
18	Vianés	5	−5	1