Anguiano v Calahorra prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Anguiano 3–0 Calahorra CALAHORRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Calahorra win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Calahorra win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Calahorra 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
1′KICK-OFF Anguiano v Calahorra
12′Anguiano find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 55–23–23
12′We said Calahorra at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 55–23–23
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Anguiano 1–0 Calahorra
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Calahorra win: 47% at kick-off, 23% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Anguiano win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Calahorra win 23%)
25′We said Calahorra at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 57–24–19
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 58–24–18
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Calahorra win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
41′We said Calahorra at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
45′We said Calahorra at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 87–10–3
45′HALF-TIME Anguiano 2–0 Calahorra
46′SECOND HALF Anguiano 2–0 Calahorra
48′A goal for Anguiano on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–3
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Anguiano 2–0 Calahorra
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Calahorra win: 47% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Anguiano 3–0 Calahorra
FTAnguiano 3–0 Calahorra · Calahorra win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Calahorra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Anguiano 28%, draw 25%, Calahorra 47%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Anguiano v CalahorraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Anguiano win28%

Draw25%

Calahorra win47%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Anguiano

Calahorra

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Calahorra	6	+11	12
10	Anguiano	6	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · calahorra winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Calahorra a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Anguiano v Calahorra~~1.25 – 1.68

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anguiano win	28%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Calahorra win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Anguiano or draw	53%	–	–
Anguiano clean sheet	19%	–	–
Calahorra clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.2 8.6 7.5 4.3 1 6.2 11.6 9.1 5.1 2.2 2 4.2 6.8 5.6 3.2 3 2.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anguiano down, Calahorra across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,460 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Anguiano at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Calahorra away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Anguiano, 1.68 for Calahorra. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAL 1–1 ANG · ANG 1–1 CAL · ANG 1–1 CAL · CAL 1–1 ANG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 6 Sept

ANGUIANO

WDDLLW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0

CALAHORRA

LWWWLW1–2 · 2–0 · 5–3 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Berceo	6	+13	15
2	Alfaro	6	+3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	+2	13
4	Calahorra	6	+11	12
5	San Marcial	7	+5	12
6	La Calzada	6	+1	12
7	Pradejón	6	+2	10
8	Varea	6	+2	10
9	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
10	Anguiano	6	+2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	6	−9	5
16	Vianés	6	−1	4
17	River Ebro	6	−9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	−9	3