Alfaro v Vianés prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Alfaro 1–0 Vianés ALFARO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alfaro win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.173

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alfaro are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alfaro 66%, draw 20%, Vianés 14%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Alfaro v VianésBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alfaro win66%

Draw20%

Vianés win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alfaro

Vianés

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Alfaro	6	+3	13
16	Vianés	6	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alfaro winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Alfaro a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alfaro v Vianés~~2.19 – 0.86

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 4~~2 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alfaro win	66%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Vianés win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Alfaro or draw	86%	–	–
Alfaro clean sheet	43%	–	–
Vianés clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 5.6 3.9 1 10.0 9.4 3.9 2 11.0 9.3 4.0 3 8.0 6.6 2.9 4 4.5 3.7 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Alfaro down, Vianés across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,460 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alfaro at home: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vianés away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Alfaro, 0.86 for Vianés. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALF 4–1 VIA · VIA 3–4 ALF · ALF 3–0 VIA · VIA 1–3 ALF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 6 Sept

ALFARO

DWLWWW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

VIANÉS

LLLDLW0–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Berceo	6	+13	15
2	Alfaro	6	+3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	+2	13
4	Calahorra	6	+11	12
5	San Marcial	7	+5	12
6	La Calzada	6	+1	12
7	Pradejón	6	+2	10
8	Varea	6	+2	10
9	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
10	Anguiano	6	+2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	6	−9	5
16	Vianés	6	−1	4
17	River Ebro	6	−9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	−9	3