Agoncillo v Comillas prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Agoncillo 2–2 Comillas AGONCILLO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Agoncillo win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.005

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Agoncillo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Agoncillo 61%, draw 22%, Comillas 17%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Agoncillo v ComillasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Agoncillo win61%

Draw22%

Comillas win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Agoncillo

Comillas

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Agoncillo	6	+3	8
14	Comillas	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · agoncillo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Agoncillo a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Agoncillo v Comillas~~1.98 – 0.93

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 5~~9 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Agoncillo win	61%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Comillas win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Agoncillo or draw	83%	–	–
Agoncillo clean sheet	40%	–	–
Comillas clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.6%

0123450 6.3 4.7 2.4 1 10.4 10.4 4.6 2 10.6 9.6 4.5 3 7.0 6.3 2.9 4 3.5 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Agoncillo down, Comillas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Agoncillo at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Comillas away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Agoncillo, 0.93 for Comillas. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AGO 4–1 COM · COM 0–3 AGO · COM 1–2 AGO · AGO 1–0 COM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 5 Sept

AGONCILLO

DDLWWL1–1 · 1–1 · 3–5 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

COMILLAS

WDDLLL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Berceo	6	+13	15
2	Alfaro	6	+3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	+2	13
4	Calahorra	6	+11	12
5	La Calzada	6	+1	12
6	Pradejón	6	+2	10
7	Varea	6	+2	10
8	San Marcial	6	+2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	+3	8
10	Anguiano	6	+2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
12	Yagüe	6	−6	6
13	Cenicero	6	−3	5
14	Comillas	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	6	−9	5
16	Vianés	6	−1	4
17	River Ebro	6	−9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	−9	3