Txantrea v Pamplona

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pamplona win at 42%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Pamplona was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
3. 1′KICK-OFF Txantrea v Pamplona
4. 21′A goal for Txantrea on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 61–23–17
5. 21′We said Pamplona at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 61–23–17
6. 21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Txantrea 1–0 Pamplona
7. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Pamplona win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
8. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Txantrea win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Pamplona win 40%)
9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 62–23–15
10. 31′We said Pamplona at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
11. 37′Pamplona score on 36′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 28–36–36
12. 37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Txantrea 1–1 Pamplona
13. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Pamplona win: 42% at kick-off, 36% now
14. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Txantrea win 63%)
15. 45′HALF-TIME Txantrea 1–1 Pamplona
16. 46′SECOND HALF Txantrea 1–1 Pamplona
17. 47′Txantrea find the net on 46′. 2–1. 2–1 · 67–23–10
18. 47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 67–23–10
19. 47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Txantrea 2–1 Pamplona
20. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Pamplona win: 42% at kick-off, 10% now
21. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Txantrea win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 40%)
22. 49′A goal for Txantrea on 49′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 90–8–2
23. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Txantrea 3–1 Pamplona
24. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Pamplona win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
25. 50′We said Pamplona at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 3–1 · 91–7–2
26. 50′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 91–7–2
27. 61′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 99–1–0
28. 61′Txantrea score on 60′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
29. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Txantrea 4–1 Pamplona
30. 72′Txantrea find the net on 71′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
31. 72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Txantrea 5–1 Pamplona
32. 73′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
33. FTFULL TIME Txantrea 5–1 Pamplona
34. FTTxantrea 5–1 Pamplona · Pamplona win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.