Subiza v Cortes prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SubizaDrawCortes

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Subiza 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Subiza are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Subiza 60%, draw 25%, Cortes 15%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Subiza v CortesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Subiza win60%

Draw25%

Cortes win15%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Subiza

Cortes

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Subiza	7	+3	10
16	Cortes	7	−10	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · subiza winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Subiza a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Subiza v Cortes~~1.77 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~7 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Subiza win	60%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Cortes win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Subiza or draw	85%	–	–
Subiza clean sheet	47%	–	–
Cortes clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 9.2 5.2 2.4 1 13.0 11.6 4.1 2 12.2 9.2 3.6 3 7.2 5.4 2.1 4 3.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Subiza down, Cortes across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Subiza at home: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cortes away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Subiza, 0.77 for Cortes. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SUB 4–1 COR · COR 0–2 SUB · COR 1–1 SUB · SUB 1–0 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 12 Sept

SUBIZA

WDWLWL5–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

CORTES

WLDLDL2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	8	+20	22
2	Mutilvera	8	+12	20
3	Beti Kozkor	8	+2	16
4	Gazte Berriak	7	+3	13
5	San Juan	8	+5	11
6	Avance Ezcabarte	8	+4	11
7	Subiza	7	+3	10
8	Aoiz	8	+1	10
9	Txantrea	8	−1	10
10	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
11	Valle Egüés	7	0	9
12	Beti Onak	8	−2	8
13	Cirbonero	7	−8	8
14	Huarte	8	−3	7
15	Pamplona	8	−5	7
16	Cortes	7	−10	5
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	7	−17	3