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Subiza v Bidezarra

Subiza

2–1Full time

Bidezarra

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Subiza 2–1 Bidezarra SUBIZA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Subiza win~~60%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.242

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.500

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Subiza win at 60%.
5′Much as we predicted: Subiza was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–15
8′Much as we predicted: Subiza was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–25–15
21′Bidezarra find the net on 9′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–29–44
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Bidezarra win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Subiza win 27%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 60% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Subiza win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Bidezarra win 15%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 27% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 60% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Subiza win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Bidezarra win 15%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 27% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Bidezarra win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Subiza win 27%)
24′A goal for Subiza on 24′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 55–30–16
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 60% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Subiza win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Bidezarra win 15%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 27% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Bidezarra win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Subiza win 27%)
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Subiza 1–1 Bidezarra
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 55% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Subiza win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Bidezarra win 16%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 55% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Subiza win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Bidezarra win 16%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 49% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 55% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 49% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 55% now
45′HALF-TIME Subiza 1–1 Bidezarra
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Subiza win: 60% at kick-off, 49% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 9' Subiza 1–1 Bidezarra
45′⚽ GOAL · 24' Subiza 1–1 Bidezarra
46′SECOND HALF Subiza 1–1 Bidezarra
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Subiza 2–1 Bidezarra
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Subiza 2–1 Bidezarra
90′⚽ GOAL · 9' Subiza 2–1 Bidezarra
90′⚽ GOAL · 24' Subiza 2–1 Bidezarra
FTFULL TIME Subiza 2–1 Bidezarra
FTSubiza 2–1 Bidezarra · Subiza win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Subiza win60%

Draw25%

Bidezarra win15%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Subiza

Bidezarra

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Subiza	5	+3	7
16	Bidezarra	5	−6	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · subiza winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

60% The market42%

Us60%

~~Market~~42%

We make Subiza a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · subiza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Subiza win	60%	42%	+18
Draw	25%	28%	−2
Bidezarra win	15%	30%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	45%	47%	−2
Both teams to score	43%	52%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	26%	−3
Subiza or draw	85%	70%	+16
Subiza clean sheet	48%	–	–
Bidezarra clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 9.8 5.3 2.3 1 13.7 11.6 3.9 2 12.6 9.1 3.3 3 7.4 5.3 4 3.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Subiza down, Bidezarra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,456 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.5% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Subiza at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bidezarra away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Subiza, 0.73 for Bidezarra. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BID 1–0 SUB · SUB 0–0 BID · BID 2–0 SUB · SUB 1–2 BID

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

SUBIZA

LLWDWL0–4 · 2–3 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

BIDEZARRA

WDLLDD3–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	6	+17	18
2	Mutilvera	6	+7	14
3	Beti Kozkor	6	+4	13
4	Gazte Berriak	6	+4	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	6	+7	11
6	Aoiz	6	+2	9
7	Subiza	5	+3	7
8	San Juan	6	+1	7
9	Doneztebe FT	6	+3	6
10	Valle Egüés	6	−1	6
11	Txantrea	6	−5	6
12	Beti Onak	6	−3	5
13	Cortes	6	−6	5
14	Pamplona	6	−2	4
15	Huarte	6	−3	4
16	Bidezarra	5	−6	3
17	Cantolagua	5	−12	3
18	Cirbonero	5	−10	2