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Pamplona v Gazte Berriak

Pamplona

1–0Full time

Gazte Berriak

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · SUN 18 OCT · Campo de Futbol Beitikuntzea

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Pamplona 1–0 Gazte Berriak PAMPLONA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pamplona win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.362

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pamplona win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pamplona was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–28–21
1′KICK-OFF Pamplona v Gazte Berriak
32′Gazte Berriak find the net on 32′. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–27–56
32′We said Pamplona at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–27–56
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Pamplona 0–1 Gazte Berriak
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Pamplona win: 51% at kick-off, 17% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Gazte Berriak win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Pamplona win 17%)
33′GOAL DISALLOWED · 33' Gazte Berriak
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Pamplona win: 51% at kick-off, 43% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Pamplona win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Gazte Berriak win 20%)
45′We said Pamplona at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
45′HALF-TIME Pamplona 0–0 Gazte Berriak
46′SECOND HALF Pamplona 0–0 Gazte Berriak
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Pamplona win 38%)
55′We said Pamplona at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–17
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Pamplona win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
63′We said Pamplona at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–15
70′We said Pamplona at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Pamplona win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
80′We said Pamplona at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Pamplona win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
84′We said Pamplona at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
84′Pamplona find the net on 84′. 1–0. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Pamplona 1–0 Gazte Berriak
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Pamplona win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Pamplona win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
85′We published Pamplona at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Pamplona 1–0 Gazte Berriak
FTPamplona 1–0 Gazte Berriak · Pamplona win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pamplona are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pamplona 51%, draw 28%, Gazte Berriak 21%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Pamplona v Gazte BerriakBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pamplona win51%

Draw28%

Gazte Berriak win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 7

VenueCampo de Futbol Beitikuntzea

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pamplona

Gazte Berriak

8Days since last match9

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Gazte Berriak	6	+4	13
15	Pamplona	6	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pamplona winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Pamplona a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pamplona v Gazte Berriak~~1.51 – 0.86

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~15 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pamplona win	51%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Gazte Berriak win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Pamplona or draw	79%	–	–
Pamplona clean sheet	43%	–	–
Gazte Berriak clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 10.9 7.1 3.5 1 13.1 12.9 5.1 2 10.5 8.8 3.8 3 5.3 4.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pamplona down, Gazte Berriak across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,463 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.4% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Pamplona at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gazte Berriak away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Pamplona, 0.86 for Gazte Berriak. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept

PAMPLONA

DLDDDL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

GAZTE BERRIAK

WLWDWW3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	6	+17	18
2	Mutilvera	7	+9	17
3	Beti Kozkor	7	+5	16
4	Gazte Berriak	6	+4	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	7	+5	11
6	Subiza	7	+3	10
7	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
8	Aoiz	6	+2	9
9	Valle Egüés	7	0	9
10	Beti Onak	7	+1	8
11	San Juan	6	+1	7
12	Txantrea	6	−5	6
13	Cirbonero	6	−9	5
14	Cortes	7	−10	5
15	Pamplona	6	−2	4
16	Huarte	7	−4	4
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	6	−13	3