Mutilvera v Beti Kozkor prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Mutilvera 3–0 Beti Kozkor MUTILVERA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mutilvera win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.239

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mutilvera are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mutilvera 61%, draw 25%, Beti Kozkor 14%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Mutilvera v Beti KozkorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mutilvera win61%

Draw25%

Beti Kozkor win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mutilvera

Beti Kozkor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mutilvera	7	+9	17
3	Beti Kozkor	7	+5	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mutilvera winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Mutilvera a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mutilvera v Beti Kozkor~~1.74 – 0.72

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 16~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mutilvera win	61%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Beti Kozkor win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Mutilvera or draw	86%	–	–
Mutilvera clean sheet	49%	–	–
Beti Kozkor clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 9.9 5.3 2.3 1 13.9 11.4 3.8 2 12.7 9.0 3.3 3 7.4 5.2 4 3.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mutilvera down, Beti Kozkor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mutilvera at home: 2.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Beti Kozkor away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Mutilvera, 0.72 for Beti Kozkor. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MUT 2–0 BET · BET 0–1 MUT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 12 Sept

MUTILVERA

WDWWWW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

BETI KOZKOR

WWLWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	7	+17	19
2	Mutilvera	7	+9	17
3	Beti Kozkor	7	+5	16
4	Gazte Berriak	7	+3	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	8	+4	11
6	San Juan	7	+5	10
7	Subiza	7	+3	10
8	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
9	Aoiz	7	+1	9
10	Valle Egüés	7	0	9
11	Beti Onak	7	+1	8
12	Cirbonero	7	−8	8
13	Pamplona	7	−1	7
14	Huarte	8	−3	7
15	Txantrea	7	−5	7
16	Cortes	7	−10	5
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	7	−17	3