Izarra v Txantrea prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Izarra 0–0 Txantrea IZARRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Izarra win~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.328

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Izarra win at 77%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Izarra 77% before kick-off, 77% now. 0–0 · 77–15–9
1′KICK-OFF Izarra v Txantrea
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Izarra win: 77% at kick-off, 67% now
38′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 65%. 0–0 · 65–24–11
40′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–24–11
45′HALF-TIME Izarra 0–0 Txantrea
46′SECOND HALF Izarra 0–0 Txantrea
49′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–29–12
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Izarra win: 77% at kick-off, 57% now
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 3.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 55–34–12
57′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–34–12
63′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–40–11
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Izarra win: 77% at kick-off, 46% now
68′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–46–11
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Izarra win 42%)
72′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–52–10
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Izarra win: 77% at kick-off, 37% now
76′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–59–9
78′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–63–8
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Izarra win: 77% at kick-off, 27% now
81′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–70–7
83′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–75–6
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Izarra win: 77% at kick-off, 17% now
86′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–81–4
90′We said Izarra at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–3
FTFULL TIME Izarra 0–0 Txantrea
FTIzarra 0–0 Txantrea · Izarra win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Izarra are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Izarra 77%, draw 15%, Txantrea 9%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Izarra v TxantreaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Izarra win77%

Draw15%

Txantrea win9%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Izarra

Txantrea

8Days since last match10

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 8 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · izarra winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

77% The market–

Us77%

We make Izarra a 77% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Izarra v Txantrea~~2.94 – 0.92

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 6~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Izarra win	77%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Txantrea win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Izarra or draw	91%	–	–
Izarra clean sheet	40%	–	–
Txantrea clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.1%

0123450 2.9 1 5.9 6.4 2.7 2 9.1 8.2 3.8 3 8.6 7.8 3.6 4 6.3 5.7 2.6 5 3.8 3.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Izarra down, Txantrea across0–5 goals a side shown (91.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,463 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.4% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Izarra at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Txantrea away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.94 goals for Izarra, 0.92 for Txantrea. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TXA 1–2 IZA · IZA 4–1 TXA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept

IZARRA

WWWWWW4–0 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

TXANTREA

LDWDLD0–4 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	6	+17	18
2	Mutilvera	7	+9	17
3	Beti Kozkor	7	+5	16
4	Gazte Berriak	6	+4	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	7	+5	11
6	Subiza	7	+3	10
7	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
8	Aoiz	6	+2	9
9	Valle Egüés	7	0	9
10	Beti Onak	7	+1	8
11	San Juan	6	+1	7
12	Txantrea	6	−5	6
13	Cirbonero	6	−9	5
14	Cortes	7	−10	5
15	Pamplona	6	−2	4
16	Huarte	7	−4	4
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	6	−13	3