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Huarte v Gazte Berriak

Huarte

0–2Full time

Gazte Berriak

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Huarte 0–2 Gazte Berriak HUARTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Huarte win~~47%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.865

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.870

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Huarte win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Huarte 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Huarte v Gazte Berriak
45′HALF-TIME Huarte 0–0 Gazte Berriak
46′SECOND HALF Huarte 0–0 Gazte Berriak
77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Huarte
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Huarte 0–1 Gazte Berriak
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Huarte 0–2 Gazte Berriak
FTHuarte 0–2 Gazte Berriak · Huarte win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Huarte win47%

Draw28%

Gazte Berriak win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:45

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · huarte winPublished 9 Oct 18:34

47% The market49%

Us47%

~~Market~~49%

We make Huarte a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · huarte win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Huarte win	47%	49%	−2
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Gazte Berriak win	25%	25%	0
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Huarte or draw	75%	75%	0
Huarte clean sheet	37%	–	–
Gazte Berriak clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.6 7.1 4.3 1 10.9 13.2 6.1 2.1 2 8.9 8.9 4.5 3 4.5 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Huarte down, Gazte Berriak across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,451 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.3% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Huarte at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gazte Berriak away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Huarte, 1.02 for Gazte Berriak. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

HUARTE

LDLDDD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 0–0

GAZTE BERRIAK

WLWDW3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	5	+16	15
2	Beti Kozkor	6	+4	13
3	Mutilvera	5	+6	11
4	Gazte Berriak	5	+2	10
5	Aoiz	5	+3	9
6	Avance Ezcabarte	5	+6	8
7	Subiza	5	+3	7
8	San Juan	5	+2	7
9	Txantrea	6	−5	6
10	Doneztebe FT	5	+3	5
11	Valle Egüés	5	−1	5
12	Beti Onak	6	−3	5
13	Cortes	6	−6	5
14	Huarte	5	−1	4
15	Pamplona	5	−1	4
16	Bidezarra	5	−6	3
17	Cantolagua	5	−12	3
18	Cirbonero	5	−10	2