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Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 › Huarte v Avance Ezcabarte

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Huarte v Avance Ezcabarte

Huarte
1–0Full time
Avance Ezcabarte

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33
Huarte 1–0 Avance Ezcabarte HUARTE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Huarte win47%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.418
The market’s Brier score0.491

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Huarte win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Huarte was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Huarte v Avance Ezcabarte
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Huarte 0–0 Avance Ezcabarte
  5. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Huarte win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Huarte 0–0 Avance Ezcabarte
  7. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Huarte win 38%)
  8. 52′We said Huarte at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–42–22
  9. 53′Huarte score on 52′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
  10. 53′We published Huarte at 47%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
  11. 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Huarte 1–0 Avance Ezcabarte
  12. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Huarte win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
  13. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Huarte win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 42%)
  14. 60′We published Huarte at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  15. 72′We published Huarte at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  16. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Huarte win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  17. 80′We published Huarte at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  18. 87′We published Huarte at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  19. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Huarte win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  20. FTFULL TIME Huarte 1–0 Avance Ezcabarte
  21. FTHuarte 1–0 Avance Ezcabarte · Huarte win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Huarte are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Huarte 47%, draw 27%, Avance Ezcabarte 26%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Huarte v Avance EzcabarteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 05:16 · locked at kick-off

Huarte win47%
Draw27%
Avance Ezcabarte win26%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Huarte

Avance Ezcabarte

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Avance Ezcabarte7+511
16Huarte7−44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · huarte winFirst published 17 Oct 05:16 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
47% The market43%
Us47%
Market43%

We make Huarte a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Huarte v Avance Ezcabarte1.64 – 1.17
Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 10 SeptW0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 4 v 1116 v 5
The market · Huarte win43% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 17 OCT 05:1623 OCT 18:47
Our probability · Huarte win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Huarte win47%43%+4
Draw27%28%−1
Avance Ezcabarte win26%29%−3
Over 2.5 goals53%52%+1
Both teams to score56%57%−1
Over 1.5 goals78%75%+3
Over 3.5 goals31%32%−1
Huarte or draw74%71%+3
Huarte clean sheet32%––
Avance Ezcabarte clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 7.4 6.1 4.2 1 8.9 12.5 6.6 2.6 2 8.1 9.2 5.4 2.1 3 4.4 5.1 2.9 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Huarte down, Avance Ezcabarte across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.25
Over 2.53 of 8
Both scored4 of 8
Last meetingsAVA 1–0 HUA · HUA 0–1 AVA · HUA 0–1 AVA · AVA 2–4 HUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 10 Sept

HUARTE

LDDDLL1–2 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

AVANCE EZCABARTE

DDLWWL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Izarra7+1719
2Mutilvera7+917
3Beti Kozkor7+516
4Gazte Berriak7+313
5Avance Ezcabarte7+511
6San Juan7+510
7Subiza7+310
8Doneztebe FT7+59
9Aoiz7+19
10Valle Egüés709
11Beti Onak7+18
12Cirbonero7−88
13Pamplona7−17
14Txantrea7−57
15Cortes7−105
16Huarte7−44
17Bidezarra7−93
18Cantolagua7−173

The competition's standings before kick-off.