Gazte Berriak v Valle Egüés prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gazte BerriakDrawValle Egüés

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gazte Berriak 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gazte Berriak are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gazte Berriak 46%, draw 28%, Valle Egüés 26%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Gazte Berriak v Valle EgüésBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gazte Berriak win46%

Draw28%

Valle Egüés win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gazte Berriak

Valle Egüés

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Gazte Berriak	7	+3	13
11	Valle Egüés	7	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gazte berriak winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Gazte Berriak a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gazte Berriak v Valle Egüés~~1.50 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~4 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gazte Berriak win

Published at 47%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gazte Berriak win	46%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Valle Egüés win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Gazte Berriak or draw	74%	–	–
Gazte Berriak clean sheet	35%	–	–
Valle Egüés clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.3 7.2 4.4 1 10.5 13.1 6.4 2.3 2 8.6 8.9 4.7 3 4.3 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gazte Berriak down, Valle Egüés across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Gazte Berriak at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Valle Egüés away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Gazte Berriak, 1.06 for Valle Egüés. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 12 Sept

GAZTE BERRIAK

LWDWWL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

VALLE EGÜÉS

LDWLDW2–5 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	8	+20	22
2	Mutilvera	8	+12	20
3	Beti Kozkor	8	+2	16
4	Gazte Berriak	7	+3	13
5	San Juan	8	+5	11
6	Avance Ezcabarte	8	+4	11
7	Subiza	7	+3	10
8	Aoiz	8	+1	10
9	Txantrea	8	−1	10
10	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
11	Valle Egüés	7	0	9
12	Beti Onak	8	−2	8
13	Cirbonero	7	−8	8
14	Huarte	8	−3	7
15	Pamplona	8	−5	7
16	Cortes	7	−10	5
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	7	−17	3