Doneztebe FT v Cirbonero prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Doneztebe FTDrawCirbonero

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Doneztebe FT 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Doneztebe FT are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Doneztebe FT 55%, draw 26%, Cirbonero 20%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Doneztebe FT v CirboneroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Doneztebe FT win55%

Draw26%

Cirbonero win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Doneztebe FT

Cirbonero

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
12	Cirbonero	7	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · doneztebe ft winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Doneztebe FT a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Doneztebe FT v Cirbonero~~1.75 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~8 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Doneztebe FT win	55%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Cirbonero win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Doneztebe FT or draw	80%	–	–
Doneztebe FT clean sheet	39%	–	–
Cirbonero clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 8.1 5.6 3.1 1 10.9 11.9 5.2 2 10.1 9.4 4.5 3 5.9 5.5 2.6 4 2.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Doneztebe FT down, Cirbonero across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Doneztebe FT at home: 4.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Cirbonero away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Doneztebe FT, 0.95 for Cirbonero. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 11 Sept

DONEZTEBE FT

LDDLDW0–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1

CIRBONERO

DDLLWW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	7	+17	19
2	Mutilvera	7	+9	17
3	Beti Kozkor	7	+5	16
4	Gazte Berriak	7	+3	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	8	+4	11
6	San Juan	7	+5	10
7	Subiza	7	+3	10
8	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
9	Aoiz	7	+1	9
10	Valle Egüés	7	0	9
11	Beti Onak	7	+1	8
12	Cirbonero	7	−8	8
13	Pamplona	7	−1	7
14	Huarte	8	−3	7
15	Txantrea	7	−5	7
16	Cortes	7	−10	5
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	7	−17	3