Cortes v Beti Onak prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Cortes 0–4 Beti Onak CORTES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cortes win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.912

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cortes win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cortes was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–29–23
1′KICK-OFF Cortes v Beti Onak
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Cortes win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Cortes win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Cortes 0–0 Beti Onak
46′SECOND HALF Cortes 0–0 Beti Onak
48′We said Cortes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–44–20
52′We said Cortes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–19
62′We said Cortes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Cortes win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
69′We said Cortes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
75′We said Cortes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Cortes win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
80′We said Cortes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
84′We said Cortes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Cortes win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
91′We said Cortes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
FTFULL TIME Cortes 0–4 Beti Onak
FTCortes 0–4 Beti Onak · Cortes win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cortes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cortes 48%, draw 29%, Beti Onak 23%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Cortes v Beti OnakBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cortes win48%

Draw29%

Beti Onak win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:15

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cortes

Beti Onak

9Days since last match9

Last match: 8 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Beti Onak	6	−3	5
13	Cortes	6	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cortes winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Cortes a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cortes v Beti Onak~~1.47 – 0.93

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D5 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~13 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cortes win	48%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Beti Onak win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Cortes or draw	77%	–	–
Cortes clean sheet	40%	–	–
Beti Onak clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.5 7.4 4.0 1 12.3 13.3 5.7 2 9.8 8.9 4.1 3 4.8 4.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cortes down, Beti Onak across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cortes at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Beti Onak away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Cortes, 0.93 for Beti Onak. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BET 2–0 COR · COR 2–1 BET · COR 2–0 BET · BET 1–2 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept

CORTES

LWLDLD0–5 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

BETI ONAK

DDDDDL2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	6	+17	18
2	Mutilvera	6	+7	14
3	Beti Kozkor	6	+4	13
4	Gazte Berriak	6	+4	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	6	+7	11
6	Subiza	6	+4	10
7	Aoiz	6	+2	9
8	San Juan	6	+1	7
9	Doneztebe FT	6	+3	6
10	Valle Egüés	6	−1	6
11	Txantrea	6	−5	6
12	Beti Onak	6	−3	5
13	Cortes	6	−6	5
14	Cirbonero	6	−9	5
15	Pamplona	6	−2	4
16	Huarte	6	−3	4
17	Bidezarra	6	−7	3
18	Cantolagua	6	−13	3