Cirbonero v Huarte prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CirboneroDrawHuarte

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Cirbonero 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cirbonero are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cirbonero 40%, draw 30%, Huarte 30%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Cirbonero v HuarteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Cirbonero win40%

Draw30%

Huarte win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cirbonero

Huarte

13Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 23 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Cirbonero	7	−8	8
14	Huarte	8	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cirbonero winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Cirbonero a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cirbonero v Huarte~~1.31 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~13 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cirbonero win	40%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Huarte win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Cirbonero or draw	70%	–	–
Cirbonero clean sheet	34%	–	–
Huarte clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.4 8.7 5.4 2.0 1 10.6 13.9 7.0 2.6 2 7.7 8.3 4.6 3 3.4 3.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cirbonero down, Huarte across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cirbonero at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Huarte away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Cirbonero, 1.10 for Huarte. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HUA 2–0 CIR · CIR 1–3 HUA · HUA 1–1 CIR · CIR 1–1 HUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 12 Sept

CIRBONERO

DDLLWW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 2–1

HUARTE

DDDLLW0–0 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	8	+20	22
2	Mutilvera	8	+12	20
3	Beti Kozkor	8	+2	16
4	Gazte Berriak	7	+3	13
5	San Juan	8	+5	11
6	Avance Ezcabarte	8	+4	11
7	Subiza	7	+3	10
8	Aoiz	8	+1	10
9	Txantrea	8	−1	10
10	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
11	Valle Egüés	7	0	9
12	Beti Onak	8	−2	8
13	Cirbonero	7	−8	8
14	Huarte	8	−3	7
15	Pamplona	8	−5	7
16	Cortes	7	−10	5
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	7	−17	3