Cirbonero v Aoiz prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Cirbonero 2–1 Aoiz CIRBONERO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cirbonero win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.521

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cirbonero are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cirbonero 41%, draw 31%, Aoiz 28%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Cirbonero v AoizBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cirbonero win41%

Draw31%

Aoiz win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cirbonero

Aoiz

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Aoiz	6	+2	9
13	Cirbonero	6	−9	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cirbonero winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Cirbonero a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cirbonero v Aoiz~~1.25 – 0.98

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~13 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cirbonero win	41%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Aoiz win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Cirbonero or draw	72%	–	–
Cirbonero clean sheet	38%	–	–
Aoiz clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.2 9.5 5.2 1 12.3 14.1 6.3 2.1 2 8.3 8.0 3.9 3 3.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cirbonero down, Aoiz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,463 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.4% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cirbonero at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Aoiz away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Cirbonero, 0.98 for Aoiz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CIR 2–0 AOI · AOI 1–2 CIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept

CIRBONERO

LDDLLW0–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–0

AOIZ

DWDDWL1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	6	+17	18
2	Mutilvera	7	+9	17
3	Beti Kozkor	7	+5	16
4	Gazte Berriak	6	+4	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	7	+5	11
6	Subiza	7	+3	10
7	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
8	Aoiz	6	+2	9
9	Valle Egüés	7	0	9
10	Beti Onak	7	+1	8
11	San Juan	6	+1	7
12	Txantrea	6	−5	6
13	Cirbonero	6	−9	5
14	Cortes	7	−10	5
15	Pamplona	6	−2	4
16	Huarte	7	−4	4
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	6	−13	3