Cantolagua v Cirbonero prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Cantolagua 0–1 Cirbonero CIRBONERO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cirbonero win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.556

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cantolagua win34%

Draw27%

Cirbonero win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cantolagua

Cirbonero

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Cantolagua	5	−12	3
18	Cirbonero	5	−10	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cirbonero winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Cirbonero a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cantolagua win	34%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Cirbonero win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Cantolagua or draw	61%	–	–
Cantolagua clean sheet	24%	–	–
Cirbonero clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.6 7.9 6.5 3.2 1 7.2 12.8 8.4 4.1 2 5.5 7.7 5.5 2.7 3 2.5 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cantolagua down, Cirbonero across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,456 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.5% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cantolagua at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cirbonero away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Cantolagua, 1.46 for Cirbonero. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CIR 1–1 CAN · CAN 0–0 CIR · CAN 3–0 CIR · CIR 2–1 CAN

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

CANTOLAGUA

DLWLLL3–3 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4

CIRBONERO

WLDDLL2–0 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	6	+17	18
2	Mutilvera	6	+7	14
3	Beti Kozkor	6	+4	13
4	Gazte Berriak	6	+4	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	6	+7	11
6	Aoiz	6	+2	9
7	Subiza	5	+3	7
8	San Juan	6	+1	7
9	Doneztebe FT	6	+3	6
10	Valle Egüés	6	−1	6
11	Txantrea	6	−5	6
12	Beti Onak	6	−3	5
13	Cortes	6	−6	5
14	Pamplona	6	−2	4
15	Huarte	6	−3	4
16	Bidezarra	5	−6	3
17	Cantolagua	5	−12	3
18	Cirbonero	5	−10	2