Cantolagua v Bidezarra prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CantolaguaDrawBidezarra

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bidezarra 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bidezarra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cantolagua 33%, draw 28%, Bidezarra 39%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Cantolagua v BidezarraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cantolagua win33%

Draw28%

Bidezarra win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cantolagua

Bidezarra

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	7	−17	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bidezarra winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Bidezarra a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cantolagua v Bidezarra~~1.25 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 10 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~18 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cantolagua win	33%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Bidezarra win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Cantolagua or draw	61%	–	–
Cantolagua clean sheet	25%	–	–
Bidezarra clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.5 8.8 6.9 3.3 1 7.9 13.2 8.3 3.9 2 5.6 7.6 5.2 2.4 3 2.4 3.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cantolagua down, Bidezarra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cantolagua at home: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bidezarra away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Cantolagua, 1.40 for Bidezarra. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAN 2–1 BID · BID 2–2 CAN · CAN 0–0 BID · BID 1–1 CAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 10 Sept

CANTOLAGUA

WLLLLL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–4

BIDEZARRA

LLDDLL0–2 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	7	+17	19
2	Mutilvera	7	+9	17
3	Beti Kozkor	7	+5	16
4	Gazte Berriak	7	+3	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	8	+4	11
6	San Juan	7	+5	10
7	Subiza	7	+3	10
8	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
9	Aoiz	7	+1	9
10	Valle Egüés	7	0	9
11	Beti Onak	7	+1	8
12	Cirbonero	7	−8	8
13	Pamplona	7	−1	7
14	Huarte	8	−3	7
15	Txantrea	7	−5	7
16	Cortes	7	−10	5
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	7	−17	3