Bidezarra v Mutilvera prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Bidezarra 1–3 Mutilvera MUTILVERA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mutilvera win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.464

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mutilvera are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bidezarra 24%, draw 32%, Mutilvera 45%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Bidezarra v MutilveraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bidezarra win24%

Draw32%

Mutilvera win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bidezarra

Mutilvera

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mutilvera	6	+7	14
17	Bidezarra	6	−7	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mutilvera winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Mutilvera a 45% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bidezarra v Mutilvera~~0.81 – 1.23

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 14~~17 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bidezarra win	24%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Mutilvera win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Bidezarra or draw	55%	–	–
Bidezarra clean sheet	30%	–	–
Mutilvera clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.8%

0123450 14.5 14.8 9.7 4.1 1 9.4 13.7 7.7 3.2 2 4.4 5.2 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bidezarra down, Mutilvera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bidezarra at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mutilvera away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.81 goals for Bidezarra, 1.23 for Mutilvera. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MUT 1–0 BID · BID 1–2 MUT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept

BIDEZARRA

DLLDDL0–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

MUTILVERA

DWDWWW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	6	+17	18
2	Mutilvera	6	+7	14
3	Beti Kozkor	6	+4	13
4	Gazte Berriak	6	+4	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	6	+7	11
6	Subiza	6	+4	10
7	Aoiz	6	+2	9
8	San Juan	6	+1	7
9	Doneztebe FT	6	+3	6
10	Valle Egüés	6	−1	6
11	Txantrea	6	−5	6
12	Beti Onak	6	−3	5
13	Cortes	6	−6	5
14	Cirbonero	6	−9	5
15	Pamplona	6	−2	4
16	Huarte	6	−3	4
17	Bidezarra	6	−7	3
18	Cantolagua	6	−13	3