Bidezarra v Aoiz prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BidezarraDrawAoiz

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bidezarra 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bidezarra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bidezarra 39%, draw 31%, Aoiz 29%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Bidezarra v AoizBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 03:45 · locked at kick-off

Bidezarra win39%

Draw31%

Aoiz win29%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:30

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bidezarra

Aoiz

13Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Aoiz	8	+1	10
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bidezarra winFirst published 24 Oct 03:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Bidezarra a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bidezarra v Aoiz~~1.20 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 10~~17 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bidezarra win	39%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Aoiz win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Bidezarra or draw	71%	–	–
Bidezarra clean sheet	38%	–	–
Aoiz clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 12.7 10.0 5.5 1 12.2 14.2 6.5 2.2 2 8.0 7.8 3.8 3 3.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bidezarra down, Aoiz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bidezarra at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Aoiz away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Bidezarra, 0.99 for Aoiz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BID 0–0 AOI · AOI 1–0 BID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 12 Sept

BIDEZARRA

LLDDLL0–2 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3

AOIZ

DDWLLD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	8	+20	22
2	Mutilvera	8	+12	20
3	Beti Kozkor	8	+2	16
4	Gazte Berriak	7	+3	13
5	San Juan	8	+5	11
6	Avance Ezcabarte	8	+4	11
7	Subiza	7	+3	10
8	Aoiz	8	+1	10
9	Txantrea	8	−1	10
10	Doneztebe FT	7	+5	9
11	Valle Egüés	7	0	9
12	Beti Onak	8	−2	8
13	Cirbonero	7	−8	8
14	Huarte	8	−3	7
15	Pamplona	8	−5	7
16	Cortes	7	−10	5
17	Bidezarra	7	−9	3
18	Cantolagua	7	−17	3