Beti Kozkor v Subiza prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Beti Kozkor 2–1 Subiza BETI KOZKOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Beti Kozkor win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.623

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Beti Kozkor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Beti Kozkor 36%, draw 29%, Subiza 35%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Beti Kozkor v SubizaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Beti Kozkor win36%

Draw29%

Subiza win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Beti Kozkor

Subiza

9Days since last match6

Last match: 8 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Beti Kozkor	6	+4	13
6	Subiza	6	+4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beti kozkor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Beti Kozkor a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Beti Kozkor v Subiza~~1.25 – 1.24

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 10~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beti Kozkor win	36%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Subiza win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Beti Kozkor or draw	65%	–	–
Beti Kozkor clean sheet	29%	–	–
Subiza clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 9.8 9.2 6.4 2.7 1 9.3 13.7 7.8 3.2 2 6.5 7.8 4.8 2.0 3 2.7 3.3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beti Kozkor down, Subiza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Beti Kozkor at home: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Subiza away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Beti Kozkor, 1.24 for Subiza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BET 0–0 SUB · SUB 1–0 BET · SUB 4–1 BET · BET 0–2 SUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept

BETI KOZKOR

DWWLWW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 3–0

SUBIZA

LWDWLW2–3 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	6	+17	18
2	Mutilvera	6	+7	14
3	Beti Kozkor	6	+4	13
4	Gazte Berriak	6	+4	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	6	+7	11
6	Subiza	6	+4	10
7	Aoiz	6	+2	9
8	San Juan	6	+1	7
9	Doneztebe FT	6	+3	6
10	Valle Egüés	6	−1	6
11	Txantrea	6	−5	6
12	Beti Onak	6	−3	5
13	Cortes	6	−6	5
14	Cirbonero	6	−9	5
15	Pamplona	6	−2	4
16	Huarte	6	−3	4
17	Bidezarra	6	−7	3
18	Cantolagua	6	−13	3