Avance Ezcabarte v Doneztebe FT prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Avance Ezcabarte 1–3 Doneztebe FT AVANCE EZCABARTE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avance Ezcabarte win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.808

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Avance Ezcabarte are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Avance Ezcabarte 46%, draw 26%, Doneztebe FT 28%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Avance Ezcabarte v Doneztebe FTBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Avance Ezcabarte win46%

Draw26%

Doneztebe FT win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 15 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avance Ezcabarte

Doneztebe FT

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Avance Ezcabarte	6	+7	11
9	Doneztebe FT	6	+3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · avance ezcabarte winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Avance Ezcabarte a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Avance Ezcabarte v Doneztebe FT~~1.65 – 1.22

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 6~~5 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avance Ezcabarte win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Doneztebe FT win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Avance Ezcabarte or draw	72%	–	–
Avance Ezcabarte clean sheet	30%	–	–
Doneztebe FT clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 6.1 4.3 1 8.5 12.2 6.8 2.8 2 7.7 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 4.3 5.0 3.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avance Ezcabarte down, Doneztebe FT across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Avance Ezcabarte at home: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Doneztebe FT away: 0.50 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Avance Ezcabarte, 1.22 for Doneztebe FT. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 this season · since 5 Sept

AVANCE EZCABARTE

WDDLWW4–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–0

DONEZTEBE FT

WLDDLD6–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Izarra	6	+17	18
2	Mutilvera	6	+7	14
3	Beti Kozkor	6	+4	13
4	Gazte Berriak	6	+4	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	6	+7	11
6	Subiza	6	+4	10
7	Aoiz	6	+2	9
8	San Juan	6	+1	7
9	Doneztebe FT	6	+3	6
10	Valle Egüés	6	−1	6
11	Txantrea	6	−5	6
12	Beti Onak	6	−3	5
13	Cortes	6	−6	5
14	Cirbonero	6	−9	5
15	Pamplona	6	−2	4
16	Huarte	6	−3	4
17	Bidezarra	6	−7	3
18	Cantolagua	6	−13	3