Villanovense v Jerez prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VillanovenseDrawJerez

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Villanovense 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villanovense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villanovense 53%, draw 25%, Jerez 21%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Villanovense v JerezBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Villanovense win53%

Draw25%

Jerez win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villanovense

Jerez

7Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Villanovense	7	+5	13
6	Jerez	7	+2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villanovense winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Villanovense a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villanovense v Jerez~~1.72 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~5 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Villanovense win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villanovense win	53%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Jerez win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Villanovense or draw	79%	–	–
Villanovense clean sheet	38%	–	–
Jerez clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.7 6.0 3.3 1 10.8 11.9 5.5 2 9.7 9.4 4.7 3 5.6 5.4 2.7 4 2.5 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villanovense down, Jerez across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,464 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villanovense at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Jerez away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Villanovense, 0.99 for Jerez. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIL 2–0 JER · JER 2–1 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 13 Sept

VILLANOVENSE

LWWDWW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

JEREZ

WLLWWD1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Llerenense	7	+8	19
2	Azuaga	7	+11	18
3	Moralo	7	+7	17
4	Castuera	7	+9	13
5	Villanovense	7	+5	13
6	Jerez	7	+2	11
7	Villafranca	7	0	10
8	CD Zafra	7	+1	9
9	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
10	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8
13	Santa Amalia	7	−2	7
14	Quintana	7	−4	6
15	Plasencia	7	−5	6
16	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3
18	Guadiana	7	−14	1