Villanovense v Azuaga prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Villanovense 2–0 Azuaga AZUAGA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Azuaga win~~37%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.693

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Azuaga win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Azuaga was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–29–38
1′KICK-OFF Villanovense v Azuaga
9′Much as we predicted: Azuaga was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 33–30–37
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Azuaga win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Villanovense 0–0 Azuaga
46′SECOND HALF Villanovense 0–0 Azuaga
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Azuaga win 30%)
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Azuaga win 30%)
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Azuaga win 30%)
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Azuaga win 30%)
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Azuaga win 30%)
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Azuaga win 30%)
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Villanovense 1–0 Azuaga
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Villanovense 2–0 Azuaga
FTFULL TIME Villanovense 2–0 Azuaga
FTVillanovense 2–0 Azuaga · Azuaga win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Villanovense win33%

Draw30%

Azuaga win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Villanovense

Azuaga

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	5	+12	15
8	Villanovense	5	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · azuaga winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

37% The market37%

Us37%

~~Market~~37%

We make Azuaga a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · azuaga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villanovense win	33%	32%	+1
Draw	30%	31%	−2
Azuaga win	37%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Villanovense or draw	63%	63%	−1
Villanovense clean sheet	31%	–	–
Azuaga clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.3 11.6 7.2 2.9 1 10.7 13.6 7.6 3.0 2 6.2 7.1 4.1 3 2.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villanovense down, Azuaga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villanovense at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Azuaga away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Villanovense, 1.18 for Azuaga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIL 0–1 AZU · AZU 0–0 VIL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

VILLANOVENSE

LLLWWD0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

AZUAGA

DWWWWW0–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	5	+12	15
2	Moralo	5	+4	11
3	Llerenense	4	+3	10
4	Castuera	4	+5	9
5	Puebla Calzada	5	+4	8
6	Gévora	5	−1	8
7	CD Zafra	4	+2	7
8	Villanovense	5	+1	7
9	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
10	Villafranca	5	−1	6
11	Montijo	5	−2	6
12	Cabeza Buey	5	0	5
13	Jerez	4	−2	4
14	Jaraíz	5	−3	4
15	Quintana	4	−3	4
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	5	−5	3
17	Plasencia	4	−6	1
18	Guadiana	5	−9	1