Villafranca v Gévora prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Villafranca 2–1 Gévora VILLAFRANCA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villafranca win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.242

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villafranca win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Villafranca 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–18
1′KICK-OFF Villafranca v Gévora
3′Gévora are down to ten from 3′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 59–23–18
3′🟥 RED CARD · 3' Gévora
11′Villafranca find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
11′We said Villafranca at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Villafranca 1–0 Gévora
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Villafranca win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
45′HALF-TIME Villafranca 1–0 Gévora
46′SECOND HALF Villafranca 1–0 Gévora
49′A goal for Gévora on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 45–38–17
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Villafranca 1–1 Gévora
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Villafranca win: 60% at kick-off, 45% now
50′We said Villafranca at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–39–17
52′Villafranca score on 52′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–3
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Villafranca 2–1 Gévora
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Villafranca win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
54′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–14–3
61′We said Villafranca at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
76′We said Villafranca at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Villafranca win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
84′We said Villafranca at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′Red cards for both sides: Villafranca down to ten, Gévora to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Gévora
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Villafranca
FTFULL TIME Villafranca 2–1 Gévora
FTVillafranca 2–1 Gévora · Villafranca win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villafranca are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villafranca 60%, draw 23%, Gévora 17%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Villafranca v GévoraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Villafranca win60%

Draw23%

Gévora win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villafranca

Gévora

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Gévora	6	−2	8
13	Villafranca	5	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villafranca winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Villafranca a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villafranca v Gévora~~1.96 – 0.95

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~13 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villafranca win	60%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Gévora win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Villafranca or draw	83%	–	–
Villafranca clean sheet	39%	–	–
Gévora clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 6.3 4.8 2.5 1 10.2 10.5 4.8 2 10.3 9.6 4.6 3 6.7 6.3 3.0 4 3.4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villafranca down, Gévora across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,453 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villafranca at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gévora away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Villafranca, 0.95 for Gévora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GEV 1–3 VIL · VIL 2–0 GEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 5 Sept

VILLAFRANCA

LWLLW1–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

GÉVORA

LWDWDL0–5 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Llerenense	6	+5	16
2	Azuaga	6	+10	15
3	Moralo	6	+6	14
4	Castuera	5	+10	12
5	Villanovense	6	+3	10
6	Jerez	6	+2	10
7	CD Zafra	5	+2	8
8	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
9	Gévora	6	−2	8
10	Montijo	6	−2	7
11	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
12	Cabeza Buey	6	0	6
13	Villafranca	5	−1	6
14	Jaraíz	6	−3	5
15	Quintana	6	−4	5
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	6	−10	3
17	Plasencia	5	−6	2
18	Guadiana	6	−12	1