Santa Amalia v Cabeza Buey prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Santa AmaliaDrawCabeza Buey

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cabeza Buey 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cabeza Buey are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santa Amalia 28%, draw 32%, Cabeza Buey 40%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Santa Amalia v Cabeza BueyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Santa Amalia win28%

Draw32%

Cabeza Buey win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santa Amalia

Cabeza Buey

4Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
13	Santa Amalia	7	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cabeza buey winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Cabeza Buey a 40% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.1, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santa Amalia v Cabeza Buey~~0.88 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~13 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cabeza Buey win

Published at 39%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Amalia win	28%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Cabeza Buey win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Santa Amalia or draw	60%	–	–
Santa Amalia clean sheet	33%	–	–
Cabeza Buey clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.6%

0123450 14.6 14.3 8.5 3.3 1 11.0 13.8 7.3 2.8 2 5.2 5.7 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Amalia down, Cabeza Buey across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,464 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Amalia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cabeza Buey away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Santa Amalia, 1.13 for Cabeza Buey. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAB 3–0 SAN · SAN 0–0 CAB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 13 Sept

SANTA AMALIA

WDDLDL3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–3

CABEZA BUEY

LLDDDW0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Llerenense	7	+8	19
2	Azuaga	7	+11	18
3	Moralo	7	+7	17
4	Castuera	7	+9	13
5	Villanovense	7	+5	13
6	Jerez	7	+2	11
7	Villafranca	7	0	10
8	CD Zafra	7	+1	9
9	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
10	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8
13	Santa Amalia	7	−2	7
14	Quintana	7	−4	6
15	Plasencia	7	−5	6
16	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3
18	Guadiana	7	−14	1