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Quintana v Castuera
QuintanaCastueraTercera División RFEF - Group 14 · WED 21 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Quintana win at 37%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Quintana was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
- 1′KICK-OFF Quintana v Castuera
- 21′Castuera score on 21′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–21–65
- 21′We said Quintana at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–21–65
- 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Quintana 0–1 Castuera
- 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Quintana win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
- 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Castuera win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Quintana win 35%)
- 26′Quintana find the net on 26′. 1–1. 1–1 · 34–34–32
- 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Quintana 1–1 Castuera
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Quintana win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
- 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Castuera win 66%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Quintana 1–1 Castuera
- 46′Quintana find the net on 24′. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–42–28
- 46′SECOND HALF Quintana 1–1 Castuera
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Quintana win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
- 59′We said Quintana at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–51–24
- 60′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 25–52–23
- 61′We said Quintana at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–23
- 70′We said Quintana at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–18
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Quintana win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
- 83′We said Quintana at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Quintana win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
- 90′We said Quintana at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
- FTFULL TIME Quintana 1–1 Castuera
- FTQuintana 1–1 Castuera · Quintana win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Quintana just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Quintana 37%, draw 28%, Castuera 34%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Quintana win37%Castuera win34%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00
RoundGroup 14 · matchday 5
Match timeline
All events
QuintanaMINCastueraEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Quintana
Castuera
Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Castuera | 6 | +9 | 12 |
| 15 | Quintana | 6 | −4 | 5 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Quintana a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 38%, 37% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quintana win | 37% | – | – |
| Draw | 28% | – | – |
| Castuera win | 34% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – | – |
| Quintana or draw | 66% | – | – |
| Quintana clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
| Castuera clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2026/27No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 5 Sept
QUINTANA
CASTUERA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Azuaga | 7 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 |  Moralo | 7 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 |  Llerenense | 6 | +5 | 16 |
| 4 |  Villanovense | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 | Castuera | 6 | +9 | 12 |
| 6 |  Jerez | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 |  Cabeza Buey | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Villafranca | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 |  Puebla Calzada | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 |  CD Zafra | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Montijo | 7 | −2 | 8 |
| 12 |  Gévora | 7 | −3 | 8 |
| 13 |  Santa Amalia | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 14 |  Jaraíz | 7 | −4 | 5 |
| 15 | Quintana | 6 | −4 | 5 |
| 16 |  Plasencia | 6 | −5 | 5 |
| 17 |  Atlético Pueblonuevo | 7 | −11 | 3 |
| 18 |  Guadiana | 7 | −14 | 1 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.