Quintana v Atlético Pueblonuevo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

QuintanaDrawAtlético Pueblonuevo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Quintana 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Quintana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Quintana 52%, draw 27%, Atlético Pueblonuevo 21%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Quintana v Atlético PueblonuevoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Quintana win52%

Draw27%

Atlético Pueblonuevo win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Quintana

Atlético Pueblonuevo

4Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Quintana	7	−4	6
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · quintana winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Quintana a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Quintana v Atlético Pueblonuevo~~1.55 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~14 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quintana win	52%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Atlético Pueblonuevo win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Quintana or draw	79%	–	–
Quintana clean sheet	42%	–	–
Atlético Pueblonuevo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 10.1 7.1 3.5 1 12.9 12.4 5.2 2 10.4 8.9 3.9 3 5.4 4.6 2.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quintana down, Atlético Pueblonuevo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,464 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Quintana at home: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Atlético Pueblonuevo away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Quintana, 0.88 for Atlético Pueblonuevo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 13 Sept

QUINTANA

LDWDLD0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

ATLÉTICO PUEBLONUEVO

LDLDLL1–4 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Llerenense	7	+8	19
2	Azuaga	7	+11	18
3	Moralo	7	+7	17
4	Castuera	7	+9	13
5	Villanovense	7	+5	13
6	Jerez	7	+2	11
7	Villafranca	7	0	10
8	CD Zafra	7	+1	9
9	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
10	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8
13	Santa Amalia	7	−2	7
14	Quintana	7	−4	6
15	Plasencia	7	−5	6
16	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3
18	Guadiana	7	−14	1