Puebla Calzada v Villafranca prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Puebla CalzadaDrawVillafranca

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Villafranca 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Villafranca just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Puebla Calzada 36%, draw 27%, Villafranca 36%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Puebla Calzada v VillafrancaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Puebla Calzada win36%

Draw27%

Villafranca win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:15

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puebla Calzada

Villafranca

8Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Villafranca	7	0	10
10	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villafranca winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Villafranca a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puebla Calzada v Villafranca~~1.35 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puebla Calzada win	36%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Villafranca win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Puebla Calzada or draw	64%	–	–
Puebla Calzada clean sheet	27%	–	–
Villafranca clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.8 8.4 6.1 2.8 1 8.4 12.8 8.0 3.7 2 6.2 8.0 5.4 2.4 3 2.8 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puebla Calzada down, Villafranca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,464 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puebla Calzada at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Villafranca away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Puebla Calzada, 1.35 for Villafranca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PUE 1–2 VIL · VIL 1–2 PUE · VIL 2–1 PUE · PUE 1–4 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 12 Sept

PUEBLA CALZADA

WWLDLL2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–2

VILLAFRANCA

WLLWWD2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Llerenense	7	+8	19
2	Azuaga	7	+11	18
3	Moralo	7	+7	17
4	Castuera	7	+9	13
5	Villanovense	7	+5	13
6	Jerez	7	+2	11
7	Villafranca	7	0	10
8	CD Zafra	7	+1	9
9	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
10	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8
13	Santa Amalia	7	−2	7
14	Quintana	7	−4	6
15	Plasencia	7	−5	6
16	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3
18	Guadiana	7	−14	1