Puebla Calzada v Moralo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Puebla Calzada 1–3 Moralo MORALO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Moralo win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.504

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Moralo win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Moralo 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
1′KICK-OFF Puebla Calzada v Moralo
2′Little has changed for our model: Moralo 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 30–27–42
39′⚽ GOAL · 40' Puebla Calzada 0–0 Moralo
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Puebla Calzada 0–1 Moralo
42′Moralo find the net on 40′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Puebla Calzada 0–1 Moralo
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Moralo win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Moralo win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Moralo win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Moralo win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
44′Moralo find the net on 40′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–19–74
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Moralo win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Moralo win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Puebla Calzada 0–1 Moralo
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Moralo win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
46′SECOND HALF Puebla Calzada 0–1 Moralo
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Moralo win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Moralo win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Moralo win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Puebla Calzada 0–2 Moralo
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Puebla Calzada 0–3 Moralo
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Puebla Calzada 1–3 Moralo
FTFULL TIME Puebla Calzada 1–3 Moralo
FTPuebla Calzada 1–3 Moralo · Moralo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Puebla Calzada win30%

Draw28%

Moralo win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Puebla Calzada

Moralo

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Moralo	5	+4	11
5	Puebla Calzada	5	+4	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · moralo winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Moralo a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puebla Calzada win	30%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Moralo win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Puebla Calzada or draw	58%	–	–
Puebla Calzada clean sheet	26%	–	–
Moralo clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.2 10.8 7.8 3.6 1 8.8 13.0 8.4 3.9 2 5.2 6.9 4.7 2.2 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puebla Calzada down, Moralo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puebla Calzada at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Moralo away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Puebla Calzada, 1.37 for Moralo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PUE 0–2 MOR · MOR 1–1 PUE · PUE 2–3 MOR · MOR 5–2 PUE

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

PUEBLA CALZADA

LDWWLD0–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

MORALO

DWWWDD0–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	5	+12	15
2	Moralo	5	+4	11
3	Llerenense	4	+3	10
4	Castuera	4	+5	9
5	Puebla Calzada	5	+4	8
6	Gévora	5	−1	8
7	CD Zafra	4	+2	7
8	Villanovense	5	+1	7
9	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
10	Villafranca	5	−1	6
11	Montijo	5	−2	6
12	Cabeza Buey	5	0	5
13	Jerez	4	−2	4
14	Jaraíz	5	−3	4
15	Quintana	4	−3	4
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	5	−5	3
17	Plasencia	4	−6	1
18	Guadiana	5	−9	1