Plasencia v Quintana prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Plasencia 0–0 Quintana QUINTANA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quintana win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quintana win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Quintana 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
1′KICK-OFF Plasencia v Quintana
2′Little has changed for our model: Quintana 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Quintana win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Plasencia 0–0 Quintana
46′SECOND HALF Plasencia 0–0 Quintana
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Quintana win 29%)
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Quintana win 29%)
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Quintana win 29%)
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Quintana win 29%)
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Quintana win 29%)
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Quintana win 29%)
FTFULL TIME Plasencia 0–0 Quintana
FTPlasencia 0–0 Quintana · Quintana win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Plasencia win35%

Draw29%

Quintana win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Plasencia

Quintana

14Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Quintana	4	−3	4
17	Plasencia	4	−6	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · quintana winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Quintana a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plasencia win	35%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Quintana win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Plasencia or draw	64%	–	–
Plasencia clean sheet	33%	–	–
Quintana clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 11.6 11.2 6.8 2.8 1 11.0 13.1 7.0 2.8 2 6.6 7.1 3.9 3 2.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plasencia down, Quintana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Plasencia at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Quintana away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Plasencia, 1.15 for Quintana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

PLASENCIA

WDDLLL2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 0–1

QUINTANA

LLDW0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	5	+12	15
2	Moralo	5	+4	11
3	Llerenense	4	+3	10
4	Castuera	4	+5	9
5	Puebla Calzada	5	+4	8
6	Gévora	5	−1	8
7	CD Zafra	4	+2	7
8	Villanovense	5	+1	7
9	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
10	Villafranca	5	−1	6
11	Montijo	5	−2	6
12	Cabeza Buey	5	0	5
13	Jerez	4	−2	4
14	Jaraíz	5	−3	4
15	Quintana	4	−3	4
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	5	−5	3
17	Plasencia	4	−6	1
18	Guadiana	5	−9	1