Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 › Moralo v Castuera
Back

Moralo v Castuera
Moralo
CastueraTercera División RFEF - Group 14 · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Moralo win at 58%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Moralo 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–23–19
- 1′KICK-OFF Moralo v Castuera
- 11′A goal for Moralo on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
- 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Moralo 1–0 Castuera
- 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Moralo win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
- 12′Castuera score on 12′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 56–24–20
- 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Moralo 1–1 Castuera
- 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Moralo win: 58% at kick-off, 56% now
- 27′Moralo find the net on 27′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–14–6
- 27′We said Moralo at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–14–6
- 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Moralo 2–1 Castuera
- 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Moralo win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Moralo 2–1 Castuera
- 46′SECOND HALF Moralo 2–1 Castuera
- 66′We said Moralo at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Moralo win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
- 77′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 2–1 · 89–10–1
- 78′We said Moralo at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
- 86′We said Moralo at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Moralo win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
- FTFULL TIME Moralo 2–1 Castuera
- FTMoralo 2–1 Castuera · Moralo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Moralo are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Moralo 58%, draw 22%, Castuera 19%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Moralo win58%
Castuera win19%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30
RoundGroup 14 · matchday 7
Match timeline
All events
MoraloMIN
CastueraEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Moralo
Castuera
Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Moralo a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moralo win | 58% | – | – |
| Draw | 22% | – | – |
| Castuera win | 19% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 56% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | – | – |
| Moralo or draw | 81% | – | – |
| Moralo clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Castuera clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 5 Sept
MORALO
CASTUERA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Llerenense | 6 | +5 | 16 |
| 2 | Azuaga | 6 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | Moralo | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Castuera | 5 | +10 | 12 |
| 5 | Villanovense | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Jerez | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | CD Zafra | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Puebla Calzada | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Gévora | 6 | −2 | 8 |
| 10 | Montijo | 6 | −2 | 7 |
| 11 | Santa Amalia | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 12 | Cabeza Buey | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Villafranca | 5 | −1 | 6 |
| 14 | Jaraíz | 6 | −3 | 5 |
| 15 | Quintana | 6 | −4 | 5 |
| 16 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 6 | −10 | 3 |
| 17 | Plasencia | 5 | −6 | 2 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 6 | −12 | 1 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Llerenense
Azuaga
Villanovense
Jerez
CD Zafra
Puebla Calzada
Gévora
Montijo
Santa Amalia
Cabeza Buey
Villafranca
Jaraíz
Quintana
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Plasencia
Guadiana