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Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 › Moralo v Castuera

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Moralo v Castuera

Moralo
2–1Full time
Castuera

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08
Moralo 2–1 Castuera MORALO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Moralo win58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.260

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Moralo win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Moralo 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–23–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Moralo v Castuera
  4. 11′A goal for Moralo on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Moralo 1–0 Castuera
  6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Moralo win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
  7. 12′Castuera score on 12′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 56–24–20
  8. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Moralo 1–1 Castuera
  9. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Moralo win: 58% at kick-off, 56% now
  10. 27′Moralo find the net on 27′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–14–6
  11. 27′We said Moralo at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–14–6
  12. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Moralo 2–1 Castuera
  13. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Moralo win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Moralo 2–1 Castuera
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Moralo 2–1 Castuera
  16. 66′We said Moralo at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  17. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Moralo win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
  18. 77′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 2–1 · 89–10–1
  19. 78′We said Moralo at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  20. 86′We said Moralo at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  21. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Moralo win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
  22. FTFULL TIME Moralo 2–1 Castuera
  23. FTMoralo 2–1 Castuera · Moralo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Moralo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Moralo 58%, draw 22%, Castuera 19%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Moralo v CastueraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Moralo win58%
Draw22%
Castuera win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Moralo

Castuera

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Moralo6+614
4Castuera5+1012

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · moralo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
58% The market–
Us58%

We make Moralo a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Moralo v Castuera2.01 – 1.05
Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 5 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L1
Table places · points 14 v 123 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Moralo win58%––
Draw22%––
Castuera win19%––
Over 2.5 goals58%––
Both teams to score56%––
Over 1.5 goals81%––
Over 3.5 goals36%––
Moralo or draw81%––
Moralo clean sheet36%––
Castuera clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 5.7 4.7 2.7 1 9.1 10.4 5.1 2 9.3 9.5 5.0 3 6.2 6.3 3.3 4 3.2 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Moralo down, Castuera across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsMOR 2–1 CAS · CAS 2–2 MOR · CAS 1–1 MOR · MOR 3–2 CAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 5 Sept

MORALO

WWWDDW2–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1

CASTUERA

WLWWW5–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Llerenense6+516
2Azuaga6+1015
3Moralo6+614
4Castuera5+1012
5Villanovense6+310
6Jerez6+210
7CD Zafra5+28
8Puebla Calzada7+18
9Gévora6−28
10Montijo6−27
11Santa Amalia5+16
12Cabeza Buey606
13Villafranca5−16
14Jaraíz6−35
15Quintana6−45
16Atlético Pueblonuevo6−103
17Plasencia5−62
18Guadiana6−121

The competition's standings before kick-off.