Montijo v Santa Amalia

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Montijo win at 53%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Montijo was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–28–19
3. 1′KICK-OFF Montijo v Santa Amalia
4. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Montijo win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
5. 40′Montijo find the net on 39′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–4
6. 40′We published Montijo at 53%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–4
7. 40′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 82–15–4
8. 40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Montijo 1–0 Santa Amalia
9. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Montijo win: 53% at kick-off, 82% now
10. 41′GOAL DISALLOWED · 41' Montijo
11. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Montijo win: 53% at kick-off, 42% now
12. 42′We said Montijo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–41–18
13. 45′HALF-TIME Montijo 0–0 Santa Amalia
14. 46′We said Montijo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–17
15. 46′SECOND HALF Montijo 0–0 Santa Amalia
16. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Montijo win 39%)
17. 56′We said Montijo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
18. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Montijo win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
19. 64′We said Montijo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
20. 70′We said Montijo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
21. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Montijo win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
22. 75′We said Montijo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
23. 80′We said Montijo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
24. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Montijo win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
25. 84′We said Montijo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
26. 91′We said Montijo at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
27. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Montijo win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
28. FTFULL TIME Montijo 0–0 Santa Amalia
29. FTMontijo 0–0 Santa Amalia · Montijo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.