Llerenense v Santa Amalia prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 19:30

Llerenense 3–0 Santa Amalia LLERENENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Llerenense win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.306

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Llerenense win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Llerenense was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–28–17
1′KICK-OFF Llerenense v Santa Amalia
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Llerenense win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
40′We said Llerenense at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–41–16
45′HALF-TIME Llerenense 0–0 Santa Amalia
46′SECOND HALF Llerenense 0–0 Santa Amalia
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Llerenense win 42%)
49′We said Llerenense at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–15
56′A goal for Llerenense on 56′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Llerenense win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Llerenense 1–0 Santa Amalia
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Llerenense win: 55% at kick-off, 86% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Llerenense win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 51%)
57′We published Llerenense at 55%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
57′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 86–12–2
64′Llerenense score on 63′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
64′We published Llerenense at 55%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Llerenense 2–0 Santa Amalia
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Llerenense win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
75′We published Llerenense at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
79′Llerenense find the net on 79′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Llerenense 3–0 Santa Amalia
80′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Llerenense 3–0 Santa Amalia
FTLlerenense 3–0 Santa Amalia · Llerenense win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Llerenense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Llerenense 55%, draw 28%, Santa Amalia 17%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Llerenense v Santa AmaliaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Llerenense win55%

Draw28%

Santa Amalia win17%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Llerenense

Santa Amalia

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Llerenense	6	+5	16
13	Santa Amalia	6	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · llerenense winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Llerenense a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Llerenense v Santa Amalia~~1.48 – 0.69

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 7~~3 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Llerenense win

Published at 56%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llerenense win	55%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Santa Amalia win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Llerenense or draw	83%	–	–
Llerenense clean sheet	50%	–	–
Santa Amalia clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.2%

0123450 12.4 7.3 2.8 1 16.2 12.1 4.0 2 12.3 8.4 2.9 3 6.1 4.2 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llerenense down, Santa Amalia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,460 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llerenense at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Santa Amalia away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Llerenense, 0.69 for Santa Amalia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–2 LLE · LLE 1–0 SAN · LLE 1–2 SAN · SAN 0–1 LLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept

LLERENENSE

WWWDWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

SANTA AMALIA

DWDDLD0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	7	+11	18
2	Moralo	7	+7	17
3	Llerenense	6	+5	16
4	Villanovense	7	+5	13
5	Castuera	6	+9	12
6	Jerez	6	+2	10
7	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
8	Villafranca	6	0	9
9	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
10	CD Zafra	6	+1	8
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8
13	Santa Amalia	6	+1	7
14	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
15	Quintana	6	−4	5
16	Plasencia	6	−5	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3
18	Guadiana	7	−14	1