Llerenense v Puebla Calzada prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Llerenense 2–1 Puebla Calzada LLERENENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Llerenense win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.298

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Llerenense win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Llerenense 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–18
1′KICK-OFF Llerenense v Puebla Calzada
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Llerenense win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
40′We said Llerenense at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–17
45′HALF-TIME Llerenense 0–0 Puebla Calzada
46′SECOND HALF Llerenense 0–0 Puebla Calzada
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Llerenense win 39%)
52′We said Llerenense at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 37–47–16
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Llerenense win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
59′We said Llerenense at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–51–15
59′Llerenense score on 59′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Llerenense 1–0 Puebla Calzada
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Llerenense win: 56% at kick-off, 85% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Llerenense win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
60′We said Llerenense at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Llerenense win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
65′Llerenense find the net on 59′. 1–0 · 87–12–1
68′Llerenense find the net on 68′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
68′We said Llerenense at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Llerenense 2–0 Puebla Calzada
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Llerenense win: 56% at kick-off, 99% now
69′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
79′We said Llerenense at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
79′A goal for Puebla Calzada on 79′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 92–7–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Llerenense 2–1 Puebla Calzada
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Llerenense win: 56% at kick-off, 92% now
80′We said Llerenense at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
81′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 93–6–0
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Llerenense win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Llerenense 2–1 Puebla Calzada
FTLlerenense 2–1 Puebla Calzada · Llerenense win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Llerenense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Llerenense 56%, draw 26%, Puebla Calzada 18%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Llerenense v Puebla CalzadaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Llerenense win56%

Draw26%

Puebla Calzada win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Llerenense

Puebla Calzada

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Llerenense	5	+4	13
6	Puebla Calzada	6	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · llerenense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Llerenense a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Llerenense v Puebla Calzada~~1.62 – 0.81

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llerenense win	56%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Puebla Calzada win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Llerenense or draw	82%	–	–
Llerenense clean sheet	45%	–	–
Puebla Calzada clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 9.9 6.6 2.9 1 13.7 12.0 4.6 2 11.4 9.1 3.7 3 6.2 4.9 4 2.6 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llerenense down, Puebla Calzada across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,451 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llerenense at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Puebla Calzada away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Llerenense, 0.81 for Puebla Calzada. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PUE 4–1 LLE · LLE 1–0 PUE · LLE 2–1 PUE · PUE 0–3 LLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept

LLERENENSE

WWWDW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

PUEBLA CALZADA

DWWLDL2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	6	+10	15
2	Moralo	6	+6	14
3	Llerenense	5	+4	13
4	Castuera	5	+10	12
5	Villanovense	6	+3	10
6	Puebla Calzada	6	+2	8
7	CD Zafra	5	+2	8
8	Gévora	6	−2	8
9	Jerez	5	+1	7
10	Montijo	6	−2	7
11	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
12	Cabeza Buey	6	0	6
13	Villafranca	5	−1	6
14	Jaraíz	6	−3	5
15	Quintana	5	−3	5
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	6	−10	3
17	Plasencia	5	−6	2
18	Guadiana	6	−12	1