Jerez v Quintana

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Jerez win at 55%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Jerez was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–21
3. 1′KICK-OFF Jerez v Quintana
4. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Jerez win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
5. 43′We said Jerez at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–37–20
6. 45′HALF-TIME Jerez 0–0 Quintana
7. 51′SECOND HALF Jerez 0–0 Quintana
8. 52′We said Jerez at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–18
9. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Jerez win 38%)
10. 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 38–44–18
11. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Jerez win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
12. 61′We said Jerez at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–17
13. 68′We said Jerez at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
14. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Jerez win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
15. 73′We said Jerez at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–12
16. 79′We said Jerez at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–73–9
17. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Jerez win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
18. 83′We said Jerez at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–0 · 12–82–6
19. 86′We said Jerez at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
20. 92′We said Jerez at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
21. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Jerez win: 55% at kick-off, 4% now
22. 97′A goal for Jerez on 90′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
23. 97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Jerez 1–0 Quintana
24. 97′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+7' Jerez win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
25. 97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Jerez win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
26. 98′We published Jerez at 55%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–0 · 99–1–0
27. FTFULL TIME Jerez 1–0 Quintana
28. FTJerez 1–0 Quintana · Jerez win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.